{
  "schema": "hazardnet-model-performance/v2",
  "origin": "https://www.hazardnet.live",
  "updated": "2026-09-24",
  "totals": {
    "episodes": 5,
    "named_districts": 50,
    "districts_with_a_scored_row": 50,
    "flagged_any_class": 50,
    "flagged_the_episode_class": 13,
    "episode_class_over_threshold": 23,
    "scored_samples": 100,
    "alarmed_without_a_recorded_impact": 532,
    "episodes_with_a_computable_pod": 1
  },
  "episodes": [
    {
      "id": "amphan-2020",
      "title": "Cyclone Amphan: Bangladesh landfall, 20 May 2020",
      "hazard_class": "Tropical Cyclone",
      "onset_date": "2020-05-20",
      "affected_count": 14,
      "detection": {
        "named_districts": 14,
        "districts_with_a_scored_row": 14,
        "flagged_any_class": 14,
        "flagged_the_episode_class": 0,
        "episode_class_over_threshold": 0,
        "alarm_threshold": 0.5,
        "per_horizon": {
          "7_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 14,
            "flagged_any_class": 14
          },
          "15_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 14,
            "flagged_any_class": 14
          }
        }
      },
      "scores": {
        "scored_samples": 28,
        "predictions": 128,
        "outcomes": 14,
        "matched": 28,
        "unmatched_no_outcome": 100,
        "hits": 0,
        "misses": 0,
        "false_alarms": 28,
        "observed_events": 0,
        "forecast_events": 28,
        "pod": null,
        "far": 1,
        "csi": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "yaas-2021",
      "title": "Cyclone Yaas: Bangladesh coast, 26 May 2021",
      "hazard_class": "Tropical Cyclone",
      "onset_date": "2021-05-26",
      "affected_count": 9,
      "detection": {
        "named_districts": 9,
        "districts_with_a_scored_row": 9,
        "flagged_any_class": 9,
        "flagged_the_episode_class": 0,
        "episode_class_over_threshold": 0,
        "alarm_threshold": 0.5,
        "per_horizon": {
          "7_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 9,
            "flagged_any_class": 9
          },
          "15_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 9,
            "flagged_any_class": 9
          }
        }
      },
      "scores": {
        "scored_samples": 18,
        "predictions": 128,
        "outcomes": 9,
        "matched": 18,
        "unmatched_no_outcome": 110,
        "hits": 0,
        "misses": 0,
        "false_alarms": 18,
        "observed_events": 0,
        "forecast_events": 18,
        "pod": null,
        "far": 1,
        "csi": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "mocha-2023",
      "title": "Cyclone Mocha: Cox's Bazar coast and Teknaf, 14 May 2023",
      "hazard_class": "Tropical Cyclone",
      "onset_date": "2023-05-14",
      "affected_count": 4,
      "detection": {
        "named_districts": 4,
        "districts_with_a_scored_row": 4,
        "flagged_any_class": 4,
        "flagged_the_episode_class": 0,
        "episode_class_over_threshold": 0,
        "alarm_threshold": 0.5,
        "per_horizon": {
          "7_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 4,
            "flagged_any_class": 4
          },
          "15_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 4,
            "flagged_any_class": 4
          }
        }
      },
      "scores": {
        "scored_samples": 8,
        "predictions": 128,
        "outcomes": 4,
        "matched": 8,
        "unmatched_no_outcome": 120,
        "hits": 0,
        "misses": 0,
        "false_alarms": 8,
        "observed_events": 0,
        "forecast_events": 8,
        "pod": null,
        "far": 1,
        "csi": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "eastern-flood-2024",
      "title": "Eastern flash floods: Feni, Cumilla, Noakhali, 20\u201330 August 2024",
      "hazard_class": "Flash Flood",
      "onset_date": "2024-08-24",
      "affected_count": 13,
      "detection": {
        "named_districts": 13,
        "districts_with_a_scored_row": 13,
        "flagged_any_class": 13,
        "flagged_the_episode_class": 13,
        "episode_class_over_threshold": 13,
        "alarm_threshold": 0.5,
        "per_horizon": {
          "7_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 13,
            "flagged_any_class": 13
          },
          "15_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 13,
            "flagged_any_class": 13
          }
        }
      },
      "scores": {
        "scored_samples": 26,
        "predictions": 128,
        "outcomes": 13,
        "matched": 26,
        "unmatched_no_outcome": 102,
        "hits": 26,
        "misses": 0,
        "false_alarms": 0,
        "observed_events": 26,
        "forecast_events": 26,
        "pod": 1,
        "far": null,
        "csi": null
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "northeast-flood-2025",
      "title": "Northeast and coastal monsoon floods: Sylhet, Sunamganj and the hill districts, 1 June 2025",
      "hazard_class": "Flood",
      "onset_date": "2025-06-01",
      "affected_count": 10,
      "detection": {
        "named_districts": 10,
        "districts_with_a_scored_row": 10,
        "flagged_any_class": 10,
        "flagged_the_episode_class": 0,
        "episode_class_over_threshold": 10,
        "alarm_threshold": 0.5,
        "per_horizon": {
          "7_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 10,
            "flagged_any_class": 10
          },
          "15_days": {
            "named_districts_with_a_row": 10,
            "flagged_any_class": 10
          }
        }
      },
      "scores": {
        "scored_samples": 20,
        "predictions": 128,
        "outcomes": 10,
        "matched": 20,
        "unmatched_no_outcome": 108,
        "hits": 0,
        "misses": 0,
        "false_alarms": 20,
        "observed_events": 0,
        "forecast_events": 20,
        "pod": null,
        "far": 1,
        "csi": 0
      }
    }
  ],
  "threshold_sensitivity_note": "Threshold-sensitivity sweeps and driver diagnostics are research-private; only the headline detection counts above are published.",
  "how_to_read": [
    "These are detection counts against recorded historical events, not a forecast-skill estimate.",
    "Five episodes is far too small to support a skill claim; the counts are honest but inconclusive.",
    "The classification model was not re-run for this evaluation; only published detection outputs were scored.",
    "No calibration accuracy is claimed."
  ],
  "not_published": [
    "Model code",
    "Dataset collection procedures",
    "Training and benchmarking details",
    "Severity derivation"
  ]
}